TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 19

EGAY MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO THREATEN NORTHERN LUZON

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 270 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.8°N, 124.3°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 925 hPa

Present Movement

Northwestward at 15 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 680 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 4

Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds

Warning lead time: 12 hours

Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)

Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property

Luzon

The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)

TCWS No. 3

Wind threat: Storm-force winds

Warning lead time: 18 hours

Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)

Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

Luzon

Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Gonzaga, Peñablanca, Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Alcala, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug, Claveria, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Baggao, Amulung, Iguig), the northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan), and the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora, Pudtol)

TCWS No. 2

Wind threat: Gale-force winds

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Luzon

Batanes, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Diadi, Bagabag, Ambaguio, Villaverde, Solano, Bayombong), the rest of Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern and central portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)

TCWS No. 1

Wind threat: Strong winds

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Luzon

La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Benguet, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, and Ticao Island

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow noon

• Above 200 mm: the northern portion of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Batanes, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur

• 100-200 mm: the northern portion of La Union and the western portion of Kalinga

• 50-100 mm: Isabela, the northern portion of Zambales, and the rest of Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region

Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow noon to Thursday noon

• Above 200 mm: Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and the northern portions of Abra and Ilocos Sur.

• 100-200 mm: Batanes, the northwestern portions of mainland Cagayan, the northern portion of Apayao, and the rest of Abra, and Ilocos Sur

• 50-100 mm: Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, the western portions of Kalinga and Mountain Province, and the rest of Apayao.

Forecast accumulated rainfall from Thursday noon to Thursday evening

• 50-100 mm: Batanes

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by EGAY will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #6 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.

Severe Winds

Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 4. Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 5 (e.g., extreme wind threat).

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

• Today: Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga.

• Tomorrow: Luzon and Visayas

• Thursday: Luzon and Western Visayas

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Coastal Inundation

There is a high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and Ilocos Norte. Maximum surge heights may exceed 3.0 m is some of the warning areas. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #6 issued at 8:00 AM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao.

Rough to high or very high seas: Sea travel is risky for most vessels. All mariners are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor until winds and waves subside.

Rough to very rough seas: Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.

For more information, refer to Gale Warning #5 issued at 5:00 AM today.

In the next 24 hours, EGAY will also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the western, northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• EGAY is forecast to move northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally west northwestward and cross the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, it is forecast to make landfall or pass very close to Babuyan Islands-northeastern mainland Cagayan area between late evening today and tomorrow morning. Slight northward or southward shift in this segment of the track (but within the forecast confidence cone) may result in a landfall or close approach over northern mainland Cagayan or Batanes.

• After passing the Babuyan Islands, EGAY will turn northwestward or north northwestward and pass over the waters south of Taiwan. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday morning. Outside the PAR region, EGAY will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Friday morning.

• EGAY is nearing its peak intensity. A short window of high favorable environment in the near term will allow it to either maintain its intensity in the next 12 hour or slightly intensify. Afterwards, a weakening trend may begin due to increasing interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Taiwan. Further weakening is expected outside the PAR region due to increasingly unfavorable environment and the eventual landfall over the landmass of China.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA