TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 14

TYPHOON EGAY STEADILY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD

Location of Center (4:00 PM)

The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 500 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.8°N, 126.3°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, and central pressure of 955 hPa

Present Movement

North northwestward at 10 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center

TCWS No. 2

Wind threat: Gale-force winds

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Luzon

Catanduanes, eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Malinao, Tiwi), northern portion of Camarines Norte (Calaguas and Maculabo Islands), eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, San Jose, Sagñay), Isabela, northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao), Quirino, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, central and eastern portions of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig, Sadanga, Bontoc), eastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Diadi, Bagabag), eastern portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Lagawe, Banaue, Hingyon, Lamut), central and eastern portions of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagangilang, San Juan, Dolores, Lagayan, Danglas, La Paz, Daguioman, Boliney, Bucloc, Licuan-Baay, Sallapadan, Tayum, Bucay, Bangued, Peñarrubia, Manabo, Tubo), Ilocos Norte and Batanes

Visayas

The northeastern portion of Northern Samar (Laoang, Palapag)

TCWS No. 1

Wind threat: Strong winds

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Luzon

Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao Island, Burias Island, the rest of Albay, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Abra, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the rest of Aurora, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Marinduque, central and eastern portions of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Romblon, Magdiwang, Cajidiocan, San Fernando) and the northern and central portions of Batangas (Calaca, Cuenca, Taysan, Lian, Tuy, Balayan, Talisay, Padre Garcia, Agoncillo, Santo Tomas, San Jose, Lemery, Lipa City, Ibaan, City of Tanauan, Mataasnakahoy, Alitagtag, Balete, Nasugbu, San Juan, San Nicolas, Rosario, Laurel, Santa Teresita, Taal, Malvar)

Visayas

Eastern Samar, the rest of Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, the northern and central portions of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Mahaplag, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, Abuyog, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Javier, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, City of Baybay, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo) and the northern portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands, Camotes Islands

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon

• 50-100 mm: Cagayan, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, and Sorsogon

Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow afternoon to Wednesday afternoon

• Above 200 mm: Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, and the northern portion of La Union

• 100-200 mm: the northern and eastern portion of Isabela, the rest of La Union, Mt. Province, Benguet, and the western portion of Pangasinan

• 50-100 mm: the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Pangasinan, and Zambales

Forecast accumulated rainfall on Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening

• Above 200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northwestern portion of Abra

• 100-200 mm: The northern portion of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, the rest of Abra, and Ilocos Sur,

• 50-100 mm: The rest of mainland Cagayan, Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan.

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #4 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 PM today.

Severe Winds

Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat).

EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

• Today: The rest of Visayas and MIMAROPA, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.

• Tomorrow: The rest of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and the northern portion of Northern Mindanao and Dinagat Islands.

• Wednesday: Visayas and the rest of Luzon.

Coastal Inundation

There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Isabela. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #2 issued at 2:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, seaboards of Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 issued at 5:00 PM today.

In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• EGAY is forecast to track north northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday morning. Typhoon EGAY may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China on late Thursday or early Friday.

• It must be emphasized that further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. This is represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.

• EGAY is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or on early Wednesday. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. Nevertheless, EGAY is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA